Cryptocurrencies: Waiting For The Big Bang

While it is true that the number of units of a given cryptocurrency is limited, there appears to be no limit on the number of currencies that can be developed. The number of cryptos has risen by 70% in the last year. The crypto development is reminiscent of the periods in which independent American banks each issued their own currencies. This ended in an implosion which only the strong survived. Thus far, 2022 has brought lower prices. Price has been moving sideways recently in what might be seen as the building of a base. But what is holding the price advance back?

I met with one of the backers of Bitcoin
BTC
several years ago. He told me that the government had asked him to assist in the creation of a government-backed crypto currency. This would also bring rules and a regulatory body. I thought that this development would be a tidal wave for the industry. Bigger cryptos would have to adjust while the smaller ones would be unlikely to survive. Here is the reasoning.

The government has powers that the private sector does not have. Uncle Sam can offer incentives to use their currency, such as a discount on tax payments. I received an initial but small confirmation from a friend who visited the Bahamas recently. He told me that one can pay in US$, Bahamian $, or the new digital currency. If one selects the digital alternative, the buyer gets a discount, the type of incentive that the US government can and will utilize. The larger cryptos will likely survive, but I doubt that the smaller ones will. Do you have any memory of the early days of the automobile? There were many brands, but only a few large companies survived. The Studebaker and the Stutz are gone. Smaller cryptos will go the same way. I doubt that there will be sustained growth until the government makes its move and a regulatory structure appears.

Bitcoin market activity supports this view. A recent rally was unable to sustain, not even reaching any minimal retracement level of the prior decline. Adam Smith wrote, “All money is a matter of belief.” A Paul McRae Montgomery stated, if an asset has no intrinsic value, price is very much subject to feelings and not logic. Cryptos are likely remain in a trading range until the discussed fundamentals play out. Based upon the stirrings at the Fed and in the federal government, we should look to late 2023 and 2024.